2004年3月29日

〔政治〕美國標準週刊對2004台灣總統大選的報導(一)

  這是我接到的一封轉寄的MAIL,雖然英文我也會,但本篇不是我翻譯的,特此聲明。他山之石,可以攻錯,大家參考參考!

美國傳統基金會亞洲研究所資深研究員 John J. Tkacik Jr. 現在人在台灣觀察公投及總統大選。 他在親歷過去這幾天的無法無天後,親筆寫了這篇文章,交付標準週刊發表。傳統基金會是個右派智庫,在華盛頓首府舉足輕重,言論鏗鏘,很受布許政權倚重。標準週刊更是無論派別,每個政治學教授要求學生必讀的刊物。他們發表的許多論文,常被引用來作國會聽證及施政的依據。
note:這篇MAIL對美國傳統基金會的評價好像不錯,不過依在下之聽聞,美國傳統基金會是一個相當保守的智庫組織,該基金會以龐大的政經實力干預美國聯邦政府的政策,在許多民主派的眼中,簡直是邪惡有錢人的代名詞。2007-02-02
  

---原文及翻譯如下---

The Floridazation of Taiwan 台灣佛羅里達化
After a bitter campaign, an assassination attempt, and a photo-finish election, the Kuomintang leads Taiwan into crisis.(經過了一場慘烈的選戰﹐一次行刺未果﹐和極激烈的選舉﹐ 國民黨卻讓台灣陷入危機。)

     by John J. Tkacik Jr. 譚慎格發表於Weekly Standard(標準週刊) 03/22/2004 12:30:00 PM Taipei 

TWENTY-FIVE YEARS AGO, eight Taiwanese pro-democracy activists organized a human rights day march in the southern city of Kaohsiung. When police blocked the progress of the demonstrators (who had a permit), violence broke out. The organizers were arrested, court-martialed for sedition, and sentenced to between 8 and 13 years in prison. Taiwan was a one-party dictatorship then, and governed under martial law. But following the death in 1988 of Chiang Kai-shek's son who was then Taiwan's president, the island swiftly democratized.

25年前﹐8位台灣民主人士在南台灣的高雄組織了一場人權遊行。示威者事先已請有執照﹐警察卻前來阻止不讓他們繼續遊行﹐結果引發了動亂。發起人全被抓起來以叛亂罪軍法審判﹐ 然後被判刑入獄長達8-13年。 台灣當時還在一黨專政實行戒嚴。不過在1988年蔣介石之子(也是當時的總統)死後﹐ 台灣島很快的民主起來。

Taiwan's new democracy was admittedly young and a bit ragged around the edges leading into Saturday's presidential election, but it had all the appearances of a successful system. One reason had been the stabilizing influence of the Kuomintang (the "Chinese Nationalist Party," also known as the KMT), one of the oldest political parties in Asia, if not necessarily a particularly democratic one. After its defeat in the 2000 presidential polls by Taiwan's Democratic Progressive ("Green") party, the KMT formed a loose "Blue" coalition with other Taiwanese parties of the right which still wield significant influence in the country's legislature. The KMT coalition's most senior leaders, its dignified chairman, Dr. Lien Chan, and his vice presidential running mate, Dr. James Soong, were both respected in international circles as cultured and erudite politicians from one of Asia's most successful economies.

台灣新興的民主直到星期六的總統大選為止﹐老實說來是既輕狂又不斯文﹐然而從一個成功的制度觀點來看﹐已算是雛形具備。國民黨(全名中國國民黨﹐簡稱 KMT)雖然在民主程度上不怎麼夠看﹐ 也是亞洲最古老的政黨之一﹐ 其穩定影響為因素之一。在2000年被台灣的民進黨(泛綠)打敗之後﹐國民黨與台灣其他右翼黨派結盟成 為鬆散的泛藍聯盟﹐ 在立法院裡勢力仍然不小。國民黨聯盟的共主其一為相貌堂堂 的黨主席連戰博士﹐其二為他的副手競選夥伴宋處瑜博士﹐兩位以前都是在國際上很受敬仰﹐被公認為來自亞洲最成功的經濟實體﹐是既文雅又有學問的政治人物。

But that is over. On Saturday night, after a hard fought presidential campaign and a whisker-thin loss at the ballot box, the KMT coalition lashed out in a decidedly undemocratic way. The above-mentioned KMT elders bandoned the rule of law on Saturday night and Sunday by supporting--whenever they weren't leading--menacing crowds that laid siege to the Presidential Office in Taipei and abetted unrest in other cities. The election losers encouraged crowds in Taichung City to stage a midnight sit-in at judicial offices. At 3:30 a.m. on Sunday, KMT rioters in Kaohsiung broke down barricades at that city's procuratorate offices only to be repelled by a massive police presence.

然而這些都是春水了無痕的過去式了。星期六晚上﹐歷經苦戰卻以毫微之差落敗﹐國民黨聯盟以極度反民主的方式反撲。我才提過的國民黨元老在星期六晚上拋棄法治﹐在星期天不是帶頭領導﹐就是公開支持暴民去包圍台北總統府及在其他城市施 亂。選戰輸家鼓勵臺中民眾半夜在地檢署前坐下示威。星期天凌晨3點半國民黨暴民在高雄衝破市政府前的拒馬直到大批警力來支援後才被驅離。

Events began to spiral out of control on Saturday evening. When the last presidential vote was finally penciled in on the last hand-notated tally sheet, the KMT's Lien-Soong ticket lost to Taiwan's incumbent president, Chen Shui-bian, by a mere 29,518 votes (out of nearly 14 million). The 0.2 percent margin was surely a disappointing loss. This disappointment was no doubt compounded by deep, but unspoken, guilt that perhaps the KMT had brought the loss on itself.

情況在星期六晚上開始失控。最後一張選票被親手記錄下來後﹐看得出來國民黨連宋票已被台灣現任總統陳水扁以29518極微票數(總投票數幾乎有壹仟四百萬票)差距打敗。 0.2%的差距當然令人極度失望。無疑的﹐除了失望的情緒外﹐還有那種無以言喻﹐懷疑國民黨自己把自己打敗了的挫折悔恨之情。

THE KMT MIGHT HAVE ATTRACTED that extra margin of support it had not treated last Friday's election-eve assassination attempt on President Chen and his running mate with such callousness. The president was in Southern Taiwan on Friday on a whistle-stop motorcade city tour in an open-air Jeep when a bullet shot through the front windscreen. Rather than ripping head-on into President Chen's stomach, the bullet struck at the very instant President Chen turned to wave and carved a bloody half-inch deep groove 8 inches along his abdomen--the wound required 11 stitches. A second bullet apparently ricocheted into Vice President Annette Lu's knee. splitting strings of firecrackers masked the two pops from the assassin's pistol, and the unknown assailant (police believe there might have been a second shooter) disappeared into the crowd.

如果國民黨沒把上星期五大選夜前夕陳總統及其副總統受行刺未果的事講得那麼不堪﹐或許本來還可以吸引到些許選票的。星期五總統在台南站在敞篷吉普車上掃街拜票時﹐有一發子彈打來穿透了前座擋風玻璃。要是總統當時沒有恰好轉身去對群眾揮手致意的話﹐那發子彈一頭就會打入陳總統的肚子裡﹐而不會只挖了條半寸寬 8寸長的血溝﹐光是縫就縫了11針。第二發子彈顯然在輾轉迂迴碰撞後打到副總統的膝蓋。行凶者的兩聲槍響被噪音喧天的鞭砲聲蓋過﹐而兇手趁亂遁入人潮。沒人知 道兇手是誰﹐警方相信可能還有第二人。

With the initial shock of the attack, Chairman Lien muttered his condolences and dispatched an aide to the hospital. But as news came that the president's wound, though deep, was superficial, the KMT campaign was seized with the prospect that a sympathy vote might cost them the election.

震驚初過﹐連主席支吾了幾句慰語派了一位助手去醫院探視就算罷。可是等到消息傳來說總統的傷勢雖然很深但生命無虞之後﹐國民黨競選團開始驚慌失措擔心同情票可能會把他們的選局搞砸。

Almost immediately the KMT rumor machine slipped into overdrive. Private mobile phones all over Taiwan began getting text-messages that the assassination was a fraud and asked the receiver to pass it on. Soon, unsympathetic taxi drivers began telling foreigners (myself included, several times) that they heard Chen had staged the attack to gain votes. But this whispering campaign got little traction. That evening, eight hours after the president had been attacked, Jaw Shao-kang and legislator Sisy Chen, of the KMT coalition's far right wing, presided over TV talk shows which openly accused the president of faking his medical reports and clucked approvingly while others postulated that President Chen had arranged for himself to be shot in the gut. I watched two separate programs Friday evening and was appalled by the vitriol and outright lies that these people countenanced. Most Taiwanese I spoke with on voting day were equally horrified.

國民黨的造謠部隊幾乎立刻就開始發猋。全臺的私人手機開始收到簡訊﹐說暗殺是假的﹐並要收信者廣為傳說。很快的毫無同情心的計程車司機就開始告訴外國人 (連我也包括在內﹐總共遇到了好多次)說他們聽說陳總統假裝遇刺來博取同情票。不過這個謠言沒有起什麼作用。總統遇刺 ;8小時後當晚﹐泛藍極右翼的趙少康和立法委員陳文茜﹐在電視脫口秀上公開指控總統偽造醫療記錄﹐還在旁人猜測說陳總統叫人設計槍擊自己的肚子時﹐起哄贊同。 我在星期五晚上看了兩個節目﹐對這些人的惡毒與公然說謊﹐簡直是嘆為觀止看不下去。 跟我談過話的台灣人都和我一樣驚愕。

THIS WAS THE SUBPLOT when KMT Chairman Lien Chan had to face a crowd of thousands on Saturday evening to admit that he had lost the election. I listened to his speech which began on a dignified note: "This is an historical turning point for Taiwan," he began, and then he indicated how difficult such a close defeat was. He called for "coolness and reasonableness" (lengjing lixing). There were people crying in the audience. I was impressed by Dr. Lien's decorum and awaited his concession. But then he asserted "the shooting incident had a direct impact on the election that, coupled with many other suspicious issues, have clearly left the public with the strong impression that the election was unfair."

這就是國民黨主席連戰在星期六晚上必須面對成千上萬群眾並承認敗選時的另一腹案。我聽到他起頭還頗有尊嚴的說﹐”這是台灣歷史上的轉捩點“﹐ 然後指出輸得這麼就近的痛苦。他呼籲大家要”冷靜與理性“。聽眾裡有人開始哭起來。我當時對連博士這麼合體的態度大為感動﹐正等著他繼續發表敗選聲明。沒料到﹐他卻堅持說“這次槍擊事件對選舉有直接的影響﹐再加上疑雲重重﹐讓大家都深深感覺﹐這次的選舉很不公平。”

Lien was not willing to concede. Far from it. He then averred darkly that he did "not know how we would face the next generation if we left this injustice unrepaired." "I will file a complaint to nullify this election," Lien said. Then appeared Dr. James Soong, generally considered the eminence grise of Taiwan's "Blue" movement. Soong, too, insisted that the people of Taiwan were "cheated." Chen Shui-bian's so-called assassination was a nefarious act designed to eliminate the KMT's support with manufactured tragedy. "The election is invalid," he declared. The crowd began a chant "in-valid, in-valid, in-valid." "We will demand that every last ballot box be checked, and every last ballot be recounted," declared Soong, and the multitudes chanted "re-count, re-count, re-count."

連不願意認輸。不光是這樣﹐ 他更進一步陰森森的警告說﹐如果我們不好好解決 此一不公﹐他不曉得我們將如何面對下一代。他還說﹐”我會投訴請求判定選舉無效。” 接著由一向被人視為藍營大內高手的宋博士出來說話。宋也同樣堅持台灣人“上當”了。所謂陳水扁的暗殺只不過是假造悲劇來化解國民黨支持度的邪惡陰 謀。 他宣稱﹐“選舉不算數﹐” 下面的群眾馬上跟著喊“不算數﹐不算數﹐不算數。”“我們要求檢查每一個票匭﹐每一票都要重新驗過﹐” 下面的群眾馬上跟著喊“驗票﹐ 驗票﹐驗票。“

I hurried to President Chen's campaign headquarters to hear his response. But Chen gave a gracious speech expressing "my highest respects to Mr. Lien and Mr. Soong." The president's campaign manager explained that he purposefully refrained from mentioning the Lien-Soong challenge to the election for fear of stirring the massive horn-blowing, flag-waving crowd to anger.

我連忙跑到陳總統競選總部去聽取他的回應。而陳總統只發表了一篇很大方的演說表示“我對連先生及宋先生崇高的敬意。”總統的競選幹事解釋說他刻意自我節制絕口不提連宋對選舉的挑戰﹐擔心在外面大吹喇叭揮舞旗幟的人群聽了會受到刺激而激憤起來。

After the president's departure and only after his thousands of supporters had gone home, the campaign briefed foreign observers on the KMT's election challenge. The briefers--Taiwan's top lawyers populate the uppermost ranks of the Greens--explained that filing a for a recount is the KMT's right, but they could see no grounds for the challenge--not to mention that there is no recount provision in Taiwan's election law. All counting is done by election commissioners at each station in accordance with specific rules, and once the count is completed and certified, that's it. In this election, they said, the Central Election Commission has already ruled that the DPP won. The CEC noted that either side can challenge a specific polling place's vote count in the High Court, but that there must be evidence of illegal interference with the voting. Again, as far as the DPP could see, there was none.

一直到總統離開而他廣大的支持群眾全都四散以後﹐競選總部才對來自國外的觀察人員提及國民黨的挑戰。作報告的都是綠營頂尖的律師(民進黨高層人才濟濟儘是這些)﹐照他們的解釋﹐國民黨的確有權申請驗票﹐可是他們看不出有什麼站得住腳的理由﹐更何況台灣的選罷法甚至還沒有驗票的條文。所有的計票都由監票員在各投票所根據法令計算﹐等全部算完且證實後﹐就算完成。這次選舉﹐中選會已經裁定民進黨贏了。中選會指出任何一方如果對任一投票所的計票有所疑慮﹐大可逕行訴諸高等法院裁奪﹐不過必須提供證據證明有違法情形才行。而從民進黨的觀點來看﹐這裡什麼證據都沒有。

KMT then began to focus their public case not on the margin of their loss, but on the charge that "Chen Shui-bian cheated us with a faked assassination attempt." The accusation of a staged assassination, had already been disproved by a steady stream of interviews with the Hospital doctors, police, and body guards. Not to mention common sense. (Chen: "So, I stand in the car, and then a guy is going to shoot me with a bullet, through the windshield into my abdomen, but I should be careful to turn aside so the bullet will only cut a half-inch slice through me? . . . . What's Plan B?")

國民黨接著不再談到他們輸得如此接近的問題了﹐而開始集中火力指控“陳水扁假 裝遇刺來騙我們。”再多的醫院醫師警察保鏢﹐不論再怎麼證明都不算數。 (陳水扁問到﹕“所以我就這樣站在車裡等人拿槍彈來射﹐槍彈必須穿過擋風玻璃進入我的肚子﹐然後我還要算好時機﹐在恰當的時機轉身﹐好讓子彈只擦掉我半寸皮肉而 已﹖。。。 那還有沒有第二方案啊﹖”)

THE VITRIOL with which the story is being kept alive by the most passionate KMT old-guard appalls even younger Blue supporters. The spectacle of Dr. Lien and Dr. Soong posing absurd legal challenges to a properly conducted election and calling for the election's "invalidation" was no more worrisome than Al Gore's challenge to the 2000 Florida count. More disturbing was the way the two spun up the crowd by hinting that the president's shooting was a campaign stunt, and declaring that "the election was null" because it was "unfair."

國民黨死忠分子拼命要把這個故事炒成真的惡毒﹐連年輕一點的泛藍支持者都看不過去。連宋博士以荒謬的法律理由來反對一切都處理合宜的選舉過程﹐不止如此還 想把它搞成無效選舉的舉動﹐跟2000年美國大選時Al Gore質疑佛州選票的行為﹐相形之下﹐其實本來沒什麼好令人更憂慮的。可是搞得讓人更不安的原因是因為這兩個人用盡各種手段影射總統的遇刺其實是競選花招﹐而且還宣稱因為“不公平”﹐所以“選舉無效”。

The KMT's argument is that the "faked" shooting led Taiwan's premier to declare a military emergency--canceling leave for some 200,000 troops who didn't get to vote. Blue supporters claim that they poll well among military professionals. But they neglect to say that most of the military are young, educated Taiwanese conscripts who generally vote for President Chen's party.

國民黨的說法是﹐因為“假”槍擊導致台灣行政院院長發佈軍事緊急令﹐因此取消 了大約20萬部隊的休假搞得他們無法投票。藍營宣稱他們的民調顯示他們很受軍隊的擁護。可是他們刻意未提的是多數軍人都是年輕受過教育的台灣人﹐通常大多都投給陳總統的政黨。

In any event, "unfairness" would not have an impact on the actual vote counting, so the KMT is now focusing on irregularities. The first stab at that legal tack came just a few minutes after 2:00 a.m. on Sunday when a High Court spokesman (apparently anticipating a long night) appeared on television to report that he received faxed complaints from 21 localities and was in the process of referring the complaints to the appropriate lower local prosecutors. He didn't elaborate, but did say the lower courts were prepared to take up the cases Sunday morning. The relief demanded--according to the headline across the top of the video display was to "nullify the election."

一般而言﹐“不公平”與否對最後的計票結果沒什麼大影響﹐所以現在國民黨換跑道來針對”不尋常事件“而下功夫了。第一招就是尋法律途徑﹐星期天清晨2點一位高院發言人﹐很顯然的知道自己會有個漫漫長夜﹐在電視上報告說他總共由21所投票所接到傳真來的抱怨﹐正在準備把這些案子轉到適當的地方法院去。他並沒多做 解釋﹐但有提及地方法院會在星期天早上接手。據頭條報導﹐這些案子都要求要讓” 選舉無效“。

It soon became apparent that the Blue's public case lacked substance. Ninety minutes later Taiwan TV began running a video clip of a woman bringing her two little daughters into the voting booth and letting them put her two referendum ballots into the appropriate boxes--she had already put her presidential ballot in a third box. A news reporterinterviewed a former KMT Chiayi county magistrate who, seeing the clip, gasped in horror that "little children can now take a ballot and little children can now vote." The late-night crowd behind him roared in howls of indignation.

大家很快就發現藍營的公開案子一點兒根據都沒有。90分鐘後﹐台視開始播放一段 錄影帶顯示出一位婦人帶著兩個小女兒進入投票亭﹐在她自己已經投完總統選票以後﹐還讓他們幫她把兩張公投票投入正確的票匭。記者訪問了一位前國民黨嘉義縣長他一看完就大驚失色的說﹐”連小孩子現在都能投票啦。“ 深夜站在他身後的民眾大嘩﹐群情激憤。

All Sunday night, Dr. Lien and Dr. Soong sat sullenly at their defeat rally in central Taipei surrounded by thousands of enflamed supporters. At 4:17 a.m., before the sky brightened, they finally arose to lead their large and boisterous crowd down the boulevards to the presidential mansion, guarded by a long a phalanx of police. Taiwan's High Court finally ordered all jurisdictions to "seal ballot boxes" as potential evidence in an effort to mollify the protesting throngs. But the throngs blocked all traffic into the governmental district on Sunday afternoon, their ranks swelled by sympathizers from outsideTaipei. They were still there on Monday.

星期天一整晚﹐連宋兩博士都氣嘟嘟的坐在台北市中心上萬怒意盎然的支持群眾中間。早上4點17分﹐天都還沒亮﹐他們終於爬起來領著這一大群又吵又亂的徒眾沿著大馬路前往總統府﹐總統府前圍著一大群來保衛的警察。為了讓抗議群眾消氣﹐台灣高院終於裁定將所有票匭查封以作為可能的證物。可是因為又湧來了來自外縣市的同情分子﹐這一堆人在星期天下午把進入政府辦公區的交通完全堵塞掉﹐ 一直到星期一都還未離開。

IT HAS BEEN a most disillusioning spectacle. I have seen two men whom I have admired for the past 20 years turn into hate-mongers. I watched as they incited followers to late night demonstrations, which they must have known could turn violent. They urged their supporters to demand that legitimate offices of government abdicate their responsibilities and surrender ballot boxes to repair imagined injuries. And by not urging restraint, their actions countenanced violence against law enforcement officers.

這可說是最令人幻象破滅的景象。我眼睜睜目睹我在過去20多年所景仰的兩人在瞬間化身為仇恨使者。我親眼看到他們煽動隨眾深夜示威﹐他們當然明白這樣做很有走向暴力的可能。為了修補他們無中生有的傷痛﹐他們慫恿支持者強迫政府放棄責任令其擺布並釋出票匭。更由于他們對隨眾毫無節制的行為﹐進而獎勵了群眾對執法官員以暴力相向。

It is supremely ironic. In 1979, Taiwan's upper level KMT ministers--including minister of Communications Lien Chan and Government Information director James Soong--nodded in approval when young Taiwanese democracy activists were sentenced to eight years in prison for less than KMT leaders have done in the past two days. But times have changed. The democracy activists and defense attorneys of 25 years ago are now Taiwan's president Chen Shui-bian, vice president Annette Lu, Kaohsiung mayor Frank Hsieh , Examination Yuan president Yao Chia-wen, and labor minister Chen Chu. This time, KMT leaders countenance mob rule. But Taiwan has changed dramatically in the last quarter-century. It is unlikely that Drs. Lien and Soong will be court-martialed for their part in inciting this latest unrest, much less sentenced to prison.

說來實在極具諷刺性。 1979年台灣國民黨包括了交通部長連戰及新聞局長宋處瑜在內的高官﹐對於把台灣民運青年打入大牢8年的判決﹐ 都大表贊同。當年這些民運青年因而入獄的行為﹐ 再怎麼也比不上國民黨領袖在過去這兩天所做的。不過時代在變﹐ 25年前的民主人士及其辯護律師現在是台灣的陳水扁總統﹐ 呂秀蓮副總統﹐高雄市長謝長庭﹐ 考試院長姚嘉文﹐ 還有勞工局長陳菊。 這一次﹐ 換成國民黨領袖在鼓勵暴民統治。 可惜台灣在這過去25年的劇變﹐使得我們再也不能因連宋兩博士煽動此次暴動而把他們交付軍事法庭﹐ 更無從判其入獄。

It is a sign that democratic ideals have indeed taken hold in Taiwan if not in the KMT.

這代表民主理想雖然在國民黨裡找不到﹐ 卻已在台灣生根茁壯。


NOTE:原貼於2004-03-29PChome新聞台

沒有留言: