2004年4月12日

〔政治〕陰謀與陽謀

  二00四年三月二十日之後的政治演變,完全出乎我的意料之外,我想,也出乎所有觀察家的意料之外;不但出乎阿扁的意料之外,也出乎連宋的意料之外。我有一個在三一九槍擊事件後連夜趕回宜蘭投票給連戰的朋友,他說依據他的想像,連戰先生午夜夢迴,一定很後悔在三月二十日的那個晚上,講了那些不該講的話!但事實發生就是發生了,除了分析之外,我也想做一點臆測!(在下不敢說預測,因為那是偉大而且不要臉的政治評論家如陳文茜、胡忠信、鄭麗文之流,才有能力做的事情哩!)

<第一個陽謀>

  知道真相的人,擁有最大的權力!

  槍擊是不是造假,有沒有作票,國安機制有沒有造成二十萬的軍警無法投票,只有執政的當事人阿扁最清楚。他才是知道一切真相的人,因此在這一場賭局中,他已經知道底牌是什麼了,所以怎麼玩都不會輸。

  依照現存的證據,我們依據常理來推測,槍擊不是造假,也沒有作票,國安機制影響軍警投票的人數也不會超過戰備人數太多!因此,國親的攻擊對阿扁來說根本是不痛不癢。就像是賭博,當散家的國親,下注時雖然喝地很大聲,但買定離手後,只要當莊家的阿扁把底牌翻出來,還是可以通吃散家。

  我們可以看到阿扁在同意驗票時翻了一張底牌,找李昌鈺回國調查時又翻了一張底牌,每次都讓散家身受重傷。所以當國親現在還要以群眾運動盲目下注時,穩贏不輸的莊家阿扁當然是不動聲色,等散家把本錢都下光了,再來攤牌通吃!

  就算是瞎了眼的人也可以看得出來,國親因為不當的群眾運動正在不斷流失著選票。讓泛綠的人變成深綠,讓中間選民變成反泛藍,讓淺藍的人變成選人不選黨的中間選民!

  這時如沈富雄這種形象的候選人,就具備了大量吸收淺藍選票的功能,而這種人能否在民進黨內出線,也是民進黨年底立委選舉是否能大幅拓盤的重要指標!前日民進黨就不分區的提名和解散派系等事宜召開會議,總統及大老紛紛強勢地表態支持改革,我想這就是民進黨體認到上述的選民需求,而開始針對原本中間和淺藍的消費者,量身打造符合口味的政治商品!

  因此,我認為阿扁以不變應萬變的態度,讓國親找不到借力打力之點,只好不斷發動新攻擊刺激阿扁反應,使得國親再怎麼難聽的話都說出口,再怎麼丟臉的事都做出手,這是阿扁的一個陽謀!

  國親這些日子以來不理性到近跡可笑的言行,各家電視台都有影音的紀錄。年底立委選舉時,以民進黨原本就高人一等的文宣功力,再加上這些百年難得一見的精采素材,可能會讓很多泛藍的候選人選到痛不欲生!在下在此先為他們掬一把同情的眼淚!

  總而言之,民進黨的這個陽謀,明眼人都看得出來,道德上不特別高尚,但也不是卑劣!

  這個陽謀成功與否,決定了民進黨在年底立委選舉大勝或小勝的格局!

這個說法顯然高估了民進黨,於今(2007)觀之,民進黨當權者簡直笨的像是一群豬!

<第二個陽謀>

  兩大之間難為小,是不可否認的事實!

  親民黨原本就是圍繞著宋楚瑜光環的一人黨,勝選了,資源多多,國民黨吃肉,親民黨最少可以分一碗肉汁攪飯,敗選了,國民黨自已都不夠吃了,親民黨大概只能喝西北風!國民黨是百足之蟲,死而不僵,是餓死的駱駝比馬大,親民黨卻只是一個很大的泡沬,泡沫表面絢麗五彩,一旦刺破就什麼都沒有了!新黨殷鑑不遠,親民黨豈可坐以待斃?

  只有抗爭,只有走上街頭,才可以凝聚死忠的支持者!就像是民進黨永遠有不會跑票的台獨基本教義派,就像是民進黨當年只要喊一喊反國民黨,就會有選票一直進來一樣。親民黨也需要這種票,作為黨在選舉中生存下去的保命養分!

  理性問政的第三勢力,經過新黨的政治實驗,已經證明完全失敗,只要時間一久,選票還是會靠向兩個大邊!因此親民黨只有堅持不斷的抗爭路線,將自己塑造成反扁急先鋒,才可以在對立的社群中找到目標對象。只要深藍的群眾大部分都支持親民黨,親民黨就有活下去而不被泡沬化的希望!

  對需要深藍選票才能當選的親民黨立委們而言,這些日子的表演攸關自己將來在選舉中的成敗,因此一定要表演的比別人更激動,更火爆,甚至更荒謬,這樣才能爭取到在媒體上亮相的機會,才能讓深藍的民眾看看,我是這樣子地在反扁,看到了沒有,看得有沒有爽,投我一票吧!!(所以我們在集會現場很少看到李慶安,我想她應該是認為自己要的不只是深藍色的選票,而且認為自己並不需要深藍的選票也可以選得上。)

  對宋楚瑜而言,利用國民黨內世代交替的複雜情勢,製造連戰和國民黨之間的矛盾,壓制國民黨的中生代更上層樓,可以為自己保留再來一次的機會!泛藍共主的大夢也許仍長存在宋楚瑜的心中,無法消失。老驥伏櫪,志在千里!

  為了這個大夢,宋非常需要親民黨這支禁衛軍進入立法院,因為立法院是台灣政治的中心,政治人物的勢力必需要進入立法院才能保持新鮮度,才能有影響力!連重量級如李登輝都需要一個台聯黨了,宋楚瑜怎能不了解這個道理呢?

  所以有人說現在的親民黨好像是連戰的禁衛軍,只要國民黨內有人提出世代交替,反對連戰,親民黨立委們一定馬上跳出來對他扣上破壞泛藍團結的大帽子!但親民黨在痛批馬英九的時候可不手軟,好像批連戰就會破壞團結,批馬英九就不會破壞團結?他們也眼睛睜大大在找王金平的把柄,只是王金平老謀深算,遠離火線,目前持盈保泰,親民黨還找不到下手的機會!

  因此,明眼人都看得出來,親民黨提高抗爭,製造國民黨的內部矛盾,目的就在吸納深藍色的選票,想把國民黨的票變成自己的票!因為要搶綠色的選票對親民黨而言是個不可能的任務,所以搶藍色的票變成親民黨唯一的選擇。

  司馬昭之心,路人皆知,這也是一個陽謀!

  這個陽謀簡單來說就是「死道友不可死貧道」,但是為了生存,又有什麼方法呢?大家都是無恥的政客嘛!

  這個陽謀的成功與否,決定了親民黨到底是年底要泡沬化,還是可以再撐上幾年!

這個陽謀於今(2007)觀之,雖不中,應亦不遠矣!

<一個可能存在的陰謀>

  斷尾求生,是有效的政治叢林法則!

  國民黨的處境實在很尷尬,這尷尬的主因來自於黨主席個人的利益和黨的利益明顯衝突!盟友親民黨利用這點在挖牆腳,敵人民進黨則是坐高山看馬相踢,兩者都在得利,只有國民黨不斷損失!國民黨家大業大,也不堪如此損耗!

  連戰雖然是個阿斗,但黨內的副主席恐怖平衡,誰也不願意第一個跳出來說話!就像是清末的中國官場,想要做一件事之前,總要有一些因由,總要有一個藉口,為了最後的大局,過程中的一些犧牲,是必要的,也是很無可奈何的!

  因此那些可笑的口號,無知的訴求,沒有明確目標的群眾運動,國民黨可能的接班者明明知道是有害的,但他們都不得不敷衍一下。我們可以觀察到這些人雖然參與活動,但都不會隨著民眾的情緒說一些離譜的話,因為他們有意識地在涵養實力,他們已經為自己鋪好了後路!

  三二0那天的抗爭,一開始就太亂了!以致於主導權落入了連、宋的手中,國民黨的中常會並沒有太多置喙的餘地!但國民黨這些中常委,並不是智力低下之人,前面民進黨和親民黨的二個陽謀,既然連我都看得出來,國民黨的智庫就沒有看不出來的道理!既然看得出來,就不可能沒有對策!在泛綠一直恥笑國民黨低能的同時,國民黨的中堅可能已經在進行反撲的佈局,這是陰謀,也是我要臆測的部分!

  觀察家若把連戰視作國民黨,把國民黨視作連戰,是可怕的錯誤!若是把國民黨和親民黨視作一體,更是致命的錯誤!

  國親在一起選總統已經一年多了,選後連宋二人更是互相利用,緊密結合。想要很快劃清界線,是很難的!因此,必需一步一步慢慢進行。原本一群人走在一起,誰是誰,分不清楚;走著走著,一些人在前衝,一些人卻落隊,就有一點分別囉;再走下去,一些人要往前,一些人卻要往回走的時候,誰是誰就分出來了!

  走到了四一0的遊行,國民黨和親民黨於民眾心目中的形象,不能說是沒有分別的!國民黨的「陰謀」,已經逐步在進行!

  按照我的臆測,國民黨的陰謀若是狠毒一些,就必需把連戰、蔡正元、周守訓一干人等打成親民黨及暴民的同路人,將三二0之後社會的動亂推給親民黨意圖亂權的權謀,以及民進黨不能處理的無能!而號召所有的選民台灣需要一個理性、溫和、有反省能力而且強大的反對黨,而這個反對黨當然就是踢出連戰及其餘孽之後的新國民黨!這時站出來的不論是王金平、馬英九、江丙坤或是蕭萬長,都極容易撇清和群眾運動之間的關係,以台灣選民健忘的程度,必將萬惡歸於邪惡的連、宋,繼續將阿扁視為假想敵,而將熱情投注給新生的國民黨!只要民進黨沒辦法把不理性的帽子扣到國民黨的頭上,而不能把中間選民的不滿投射到國民黨的身上,那選戰就會陷入膠著,新國民黨就大有可為!

  這個陰謀無可避免會把現在的盟友親民黨踩進無底深淵,但親民黨不義在先,也休能怪國民黨無情!
   
  現在要觀察的只是,國民黨中堅分子的意志到底有多強烈?如果仍然是依照馬英九、王金平那種平和的個性來行事,那這個陰謀可能不會完全實現,而有可能改變為將連戰定位於受宋楚瑜及屬下的愚弄,然後拿蔡正元一干人等開刀。但這樣一來對民眾的說服力將大為降低,也會授民、親兩黨以柄,選起來綁手綁腳!

  因此,這個陰謀實現得越徹底,國民黨中興的機會就越大,如果這個陰謀真的只是我個人的臆測,國民黨還是一切以鞏固領導中心為重的話!那年底的國會生態,將不言而知了!

這個陰謀於今(2007)觀之,似乎是不能成立,這到底是國民黨太爛,無法實行這個陰謀;還是民進黨太爛,造成外在環境改變,使陰謀得以實施的條件不再?就說不清楚了!

NOTE:本篇原載2004-04-12的PChome新聞台,也是我新聞台的壓卷之作,之後則轉入新浪部落格另起爐灶矣!

2004年4月7日

〔政治〕不想再談政治了

  最近的政治紛擾真的影響了我的生活,據報導全台有二百萬人在這次總統大選因為政治的對立而翻臉!而我這兒原本是”只可自怡悅,不堪持贈君”的寒山石徑,竟然也在留言版和支持泛藍的紅塵驕子兄來回論戰!這豈是本站開台之本意呢?

  政治的紛擾必將落幕,而人生,歷史,人類的理想,並不會因之而停歇,或許現在是我們該置身於現實政治口水之外,而將眼光望向遠處的時候了!

  我看了一下自己的站台,發現有關攝影的文章是最受歡迎的,有關政治的文章次之,有關文學的篇章則乏人問津,可能只有我自己在看而已!真是曲高則和寡,陽春白雪不敵下里巴人了!

  不過我發現了一篇我在2002年所寫的文章,我自我期許討論政治至少應該拉到這種距離,才不會自陷現實紛擾中吧!

NOTE:本文原發表於2004-04-07PChome新聞台

2004年4月5日

〔政治〕What Taiwan Wants 台灣要什麼

  這篇報導的觀點,我基本上完全贊同,除了中國的武力是否如作者所言的那麼強大,因為在下資訊不足,無從加以評判!這篇報導最大的缺失,就是未免也寫的太晚了,許多現象己經是那麼地明顯,根本不需要等到二00四年才寫出來!

TIME ASIA 時代雜誌亞洲版

What Taiwan Wants 台灣要什麼

Taiwan's presidential election might prove to be a perilous watershed in its relationship with China. Can Beijing rein in the renegade?

台灣的總統大選可能會成為一個危險的分水嶺來區分它和中國的關係。北京是否能夠的來拉住這個脫韁野馬?


By Andrew Perrin Tungkang
安得魯‧裴林 於東港


When talk-show host Wang Ben-hu comes to town, even Taiwan's coldest winter in 10 years cannot keep the crowds at home. Wrapped in thick coats, scarves and woolen beanies against a chill wind blowing off the South China Sea, at least 3,000 residents of fishing village Tungkang huddle in the courtyard of a centuries-old Taoist temple, temporarily converted into a television studio. As if on cue, the biting wind abates, and Taiwan's most provocative TV celebrity appears with a microphone to mingle among his fans. Wang doesn't mince his words: "You people were once treated no better than dirt," he says. "You were looked down upon. Mistreated. Abused. Ignored. But now you are like shining doves leading the way forward for Taiwan." The audience rises to its feet, everybody—men, women, young and old—professing their love for Taiwan and their hatred of China, communism and anyone who supports the idea that Taiwan, an island of 23 million people that China claims as its 23rd province, is anything other than a sovereign nation.

當脫口秀主持人汪笨湖來到這個鄉鎮時,即使台灣十年以來最冷的溫度也沒有辦法讓眾人待在家中。至少三千名東港漁村的居民穿著厚重的大衣、包著厚厚的圍巾,瑟縮在這個由百年老廟裡改成的攝影棚裡。彷彿是有暗號般,當刺骨的風減弱時,這個台灣最會挑動人心的電視名人拿著麥克風從人群中走出來。汪笨湖毫不保留 (doesn’t mince)的說著:「以前你們被當成塵土一樣對待,你們被輕視、錯待、虐待、忽視,但是現在的你們像是會發亮的鴿子帶著台灣向前走。」現場的觀眾(不論男女老少)都站起來歡呼,表達他們愛台灣,以及痛恨中國、共產黨、以及任何一贊成台灣不是主權國家的人。台灣是一個人口兩千三百萬的島嶼,而中國宣稱台灣為其第二十三個省。

Welcome to Taiwan's deep south, which has long had a mind of its own. It is rural, underdeveloped, and populated largely by native Taiwanese, not the mainland Nationalists who fled the Communist takeover of China in 1949 and who are oncentrated in the urban, industrial north, particularly the capital, Taipei. Southerners are bitter about having been marginalized, and resent what they regard as the hijacking of their island by the mainlanders, whose obsession for decades has been to one day reunify with China under the Nationalist banner. Now, however, the south's independent streak is no longer an isolated phenomenon, but growing into an island-wide movement that is defining the presidential election taking place on March 20 and threatening to dangerously escalate tensions between the island and the mainland. "The north is the Republic of China," says Wang, 51. "Up there they are still debating whether Taiwan is part of China. But the south is the Republic of Taiwan. People here don't care what China thinks. To us, Taiwan is an independent country. It is home. And now the south's voice is finally being heard."

歡迎來到南台灣(一個長久以來有自己意志的地方),南台灣是個發展不完全、鄉村的地方,這裡大部分的人都是土生的台灣人,不是由那些國民黨在1949年大陸淪陷後帶來、大部分都居住在城市化的北台灣(尤其是首都台北)的外省人,南部的人對長期以來被邊緣化有怨言,而且頗為厭惡外省人(這些人數十年來只想著國民黨統一中國)強佔了台灣島。然而現在,南台灣這股對於獨立的傾向並不能再視為孤立案件,事實上,這股風潮正席捲了整個台灣島,定位了三月二十號的大選,並且可能危險地提高台灣和大陸的緊張關係。五十一歲的王先生說:「北台灣是中華民國,在那裡他們仍然在辯論台灣是不是中國的一部份。但是南台灣是台灣共和國。這裏的人不在意中國的看法。對於我們而言,台灣是一個獨立的國家,是我們的家園,現在這個聲音終於被聽見了。」

In Taiwan today, fewer and fewer people see themselves as Chinese. According to an annual poll taken by Taipei's Chengchi University, the proportion of Taiwan's residents who consider themselves exclusively Chinese has plummeted to 10% from 26% in 1992, while the number who think of themselves as exclusively "Taiwanese" has jumped to 42% from 17%. Meanwhile, a November poll by the island's Mainland Affairs Council reveals a similarly negative response to China's only model for reunification: the Hong Kong formula of "one country, two systems." Just 7% of respondents found that formulation acceptable, while 71% considered it unsuitable for Taiwan. Analysts on the island agree that China largely brought this problem upon itself. By blocking Taiwan's entry into almost every international organization and isolating the island diplomatically, all the while threatening it with military action if it goes its own way, China allows itself to be painted as a neighborhood bully by Taiwan politicians looking to garner support from disaffected voters. For many on the island, the final straw was the SARS crisis early last year, when China blocked World Health Organization (WHO) officials from touching down in Taiwan. The upshot was that in the early days of the outbreak, hospital administrators had to rely on the Internet to find effective measures to control the spread of the virus on the island.

現在的台灣,越來越少人會認為他們是中國人。根據一份政治大學的年度報告,在台灣島上,認為自己是純正中國人的人從1992年的26%降為10%;認為自己是純正台灣人的人從1992年的17%跳升為42%。同時,在去年十一月陸委會的統計裡,大多數的人反對中國所提出的惟一的統一模式:香港式的「一國兩制」。贊成一國兩制的人只有7%,71%的人認為一國兩制並不適合台灣。台灣的分析家同意,這個問題主要(largely)是中共自己造成的。中國完全堵住了台灣參加國際組織的可能性,並且以軍事力量要脅台灣不得獨立,因此中國造成自己被台灣的政客描繪成善於欺負人的鄰居,以獲得一些冷漠的選民的支持。對於許多台灣人而言,引發他們不滿的事件是:當去年SARS爆發時,中共不准世界衛生組織直接和台灣接觸,當時的衛生署官員必須要在網路才能找到有效控制 SARS擴散的方法。

Never before has Taiwan's status—sovereign state, or exiled government waiting to return to China, or renegade province bracing to be reabsorbed by the mainland—been as hotly debated on the island. A big reason is the coming vote. Last July, President Chen Shui-bian was trailing his main opponent Lien Chan, a former Vice President who leads the Kuomintang (KMT), by as much as 15% in the opinion polls. Now they're neck and neck, largely because Chen and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) have made Taiwan's identity the cornerstone of his re-election bid. Two weeks ago, when Chen organized a "Hands Across Taiwan" event to promote "Taiwanness," up to 2 million people linked up island-wide and shouted slogans such as "Yes! Taiwan," "Trust Taiwan," and "Love Taiwan." On election day, Chen is also holding a referendum asking voters whether the island should increase its defense budget if China refuses to remove the 496 missiles it points at Taiwan, and whether Taipei should engage in dialogue with Beijing to establish what Chen calls a "peace and stability framework." Chen says the referendum reflects the deepening of democracy in Taiwan, and that it's the first step to calling another referendum in 2006 to approve a new constitution for the island. All of this moves Taiwan steadily toward self-determination—and possible confrontation with its frustrated and affronted adversary. "China is in an impossible situation now," says Lee Si-kuen, a political scientist at the National Taiwan University who is also a member of the KMT. "Taiwan nationalism has a momentum all of its wn that can't be stopped. If you love Taiwan, if you identify as Taiwanese, it follows that you reject China. That's the reality China needs to face."

因為即將投票的緣故,台灣的定位(主權國家,等待收覆中國的流亡政府,或是準備被大陸吸收的一個省)問題,前所未有的被熱烈討論。在去年七月的民調中,現任的陳水扁總統遠遠落後前副總統連戰(現任國民黨主席)15%個百分比,現在他們是不分軒輊,最大的原因是陳和所屬民進黨把台灣的認同問題作為他連任的主要政見。兩週前,當陳組織「手護台灣」的運動來推廣“台灣的自主性(Taiwanness)”時,將近兩百萬的人串連著台灣島,並且呼喊著:「台灣 YES!
相信台灣,愛台灣」。在總統大選那天,陳也將會同時舉辦公投,公投會問民眾:如果中共不移除496顆飛彈,是否要增加軍事費用?以及台北是否要是否要與北京進行對話,用以建立陳所稱的「和平且穩定的架構」。陳說,這個公投將可以深化民主,而且這是2006年另一個公投為台灣通過新憲法的第一步。這些所有的步驟讓台灣持續地走向自決,並且可能走向與失望、被激怒的敵人對抗。國民黨黨員、台灣大學政治學者李斯昆說:「台灣的民族主義正熾熱而且不能被阻止,如果你愛台灣、如果你自己定位是一個台灣人,就表示你拒絕中國。這是中國必須要面臨的實況。」

The issue of Taiwan's identity has even infused the island's pop culture. In a studio-cum-hip-hop clothing store in the southern city of Tainan, Tseng Kuan-jung, alias Dog G, 25, writes and records pro-Taiwan rap. The poster boy of the DPP's southern youth vote campaign, Dog G was a struggling musician until he penned "Taiwan Song," in which he raps not in Mandarin but in Taiwanese: "Those without the fear of losing, they are the true spirit of Taiwan; those who don't agree, get out!" Dog G, whose best-selling single tells listeners to "act Taiwanese, speak Taiwanese, and to stand up and proclaim they are Taiwanese," says he wrote that song because he wanted people "to stop being ashamed of being Taiwanese."

台灣定位問題甚至注入這個島嶼的流行文化中,在南台灣一個嘻哈的服飾店裡,曾昆建(化名大支)一個二十五歲的創作藝人正在錄製他的嘻哈音樂。他是民進黨南方青年投票運動的最佳代表,在他寫了用台語演唱的「台灣之歌」前,他並不發達。「不怕失去一切的人才是台灣精神,那些不贊同人的,滾出去」,大支的最暢銷單曲裡教聽眾要「做台灣人、說台灣話、站起來用力宣告他們是台灣人」,他說他之所以寫這首歌是要讓大家「不要再羞於當台灣人」。

The ethnic balance of Taiwan's politics began shifting in the early 1990s, and the effect of that shift is still being played out today. Lee Teng-hui, who became the island's first native Taiwanese President in 1988, gradually purged mainlanders from the top ranks of his party, the KMT. He got rid of what were called the "old thieves" who occupied the legislature, and made possible the election of new lawmakers, including one who would earn a reputation as an exposer of corruption and a defender of the interests of native Taiwanese: Chen Shui-bian. The media, long under KMT control, grew more liberal and began covering issues such as government corruption and the KMT's enjoyment of special privileges. A parallel change in the island's culture, a flowering of things Taiwan, celebrated these new freedoms: schools began teaching Taiwan's history, restaurants specialized in local dishes, musicians sang about political repression in their native dialect. As Taiwan became more democratic and the majority of its people acquired greater political clout, independence aspirations grew.

台灣政治的省籍平衡從1990年代初開始轉移,這個效果到目前仍然可以影響選舉。李登輝,第一個在1988年當上台灣總統的土生台灣人,在他任上逐漸的把外省人從國民黨的高階拔除,他擺脫了那些霸住國會的「老賊」,並且讓國會可以全面改選新的立委(其中包括了一個以揭發貪污並且捍衛台灣本土居民利益聞名的立委~陳水扁),長期在國民黨掌控下的媒體也開始有越來越大的自由,並且開始報導政府的腐敗、及國民黨的特權。同時,台灣的文化也開始在轉變,學校開始教台灣史、餐館開始專門賣地方小吃、音樂家用本土方言開始唱關於政治鎮壓的歌曲。當台灣越來越民主、當人民有越來越大的權利時,獨立的意願也就隨之增長。

By playing the Taiwan identity card, Chen is not just attracting votes and riling Beijing but changing the island's political culture, too. Before, the battle lines were clearly drawn: Chen and the DPP were pro-independence, the KMT and itsallies were in favor of reunification. Now, in order to stand a chance in the election, even the KMT is walking a pro-Taiwan line. The very law that Chen has invoked to hold his referendum on China's military posture was introduced not by the DPP but the KMT. The KMT, Lien told reporters recently, no longer wants to be branded as Taiwan's "reunification party." Eager to convince voters that he is sincere, Lien is using "Taiwan First" as one of his campaign slogans, and a political advertisement is running on Taiwan TV that shows him standing in his "home county" in the south of the island, even though he was born in the mainland. "His father was born here but Lien wasn't. He's trying to portray himself as Taiwanese to win supporters in the south," says Tainan county commissioner Su Huan-chih. "But people down here aren't fooled. They don't trust that his heart is really in Taiwan."

打著台灣自決的招數,陳不但吸引更多選票、激怒北京,也同時改變了台灣的政治文化。以往,選戰的基調是很明顯的,陳和他的民進黨是偏台獨份子,國民黨是偏統一份子。現在,為了要贏得選戰,國民黨也必須要走偏台灣路線。當中國武力威脅時才能發動的公投,這個法案是國民黨提議的。國民黨最近告訴記者,他們不再希望被標上「希望統一的政黨」標籤。為了要取信於大眾,連戰正在用「台灣第一」的口號,他的電視競選廣告是他站在南台灣的「家鄉」(雖然他是生在大陸)。台南縣縣長蘇煥智說:「他的父親是在台南出生的,但是他不是,他只是想把自己包裝成台灣人,用來贏得南部的選票。但是這裡的民眾不會被騙,他們並不相信在他的心中真的有台灣。」

Taipei resident Chen Pei-jun, a 31-year-old biotech researcher with a Ph.D. from the University of Michigan, is the kind of voter the KMT needs to win back. As a teenager, Chen's heart belonged to China. A brilliant student, she attended the exclusive Taipei First Girls Senior High School, directly opposite the presidential office. In school she learned matter-of-factly that the red brick office, built in 1919 during the half century Taiwan spent under Japanese colonial rule, was occupied by the legitimate government of China. Each morning, on her way to class, Chen reverently observed the President's guards slowly hoisting the red, white and blue Republic of China flag. She shared the KMT dream that one day this flag would again fly over Tiananmen Square. At night she read books by mainland-born writers—wistful childhood memoirs set in Hunan or Fujian or Shanghai. "I wept," she says. "Their experience became my experience. Their China was my China. I longed to return. I was the perfect Chinese." Today Chen is remodeling herself as the perfect Taiwanese, and has given up on reunification. Her transformation began when she went to the U.S. in 1995 to study. On campus, she met students from the mainland and realized she had nothing in common with them, and bristled when they described Taiwan's President as "provincial governor." In her spare time she read books about the island and its history, written by exiled dissidents, which were not available in Taiwan. Since returning from the U.S. in 2002, two years after the KMT was first knocked from power by the DPP, she has been filling in the gaps of what she calls her "missing years." "The KMT lied to me," she says. "I was brainwashed. They made me think I was Chinese just to further their own ends. I'm not. I'm Taiwanese."

台北的居民陳佩君(音譯),一個從密西根大學拿到博士學位的31歲生化學者,就是國民黨想極力拉回籠的選票,在青少年期,陳的心中是很傾向於中國的。她就讀於北一女(校園正對總統府)。在學校時,她學到那棟當台灣被日本殖民時建造的紅磚建築物是被中國合法政府使用。每天早上,在去學校途中她總會看到總統府前的憲兵正升起那紅白藍的中華民國國旗,她和國民黨一樣都有同樣的願望:有一天這個旗子可以在大陸天安門廣場升起。每天晚上,她閱讀那些大陸作家寫的書,裡面描述著那些在湖南、福建、上海的童年時光,她說:「我會跟著掉眼淚,他們的經驗成為我的經驗,他們的中國成為我的中國,我渴望回去,我認為我是一個完美的中國人。」現在的陳佩娟認為自己是一個完美的台灣人,而且早就放棄統一,這個轉變發生於她在1995年到美國唸書後,在校園裡,她遇過許多從大陸來的留學生,她瞭解他們並沒有任何的共通點,而且在他們描述台灣的總統為「省長」時總是不以為然,在她空閒的時間裡,他閱讀一些被驅逐的異議人士寫的關於台灣以及其歷史的書籍(這些書並不能在台灣找到),他在2002年從美國回到台灣(在國民黨下台後的兩年),她已經完全的瞭解這「失去的歲月」中的事件,她說:「國民黨欺騙我,我被洗腦了,他們讓我相信我是中國人只為了要滿足他們的利益。但是我不是,我是台灣人。」

China is out of step with these developments. It still views President Chen Shui-bian as an aberration, as if removing him from office will turn back the clock and roll forth the forces of reunification. Yet Taiwan's clear democratic desire today is to eschew the embrace of the motherland. To Beijing, therefore, the KMT's conversion—genuine or not—is a surprising, and potentially disastrous, development. Though the Communists and Nationalists were adversaries, they at least shared the same goal: reunification of China and Taiwan. Not anymore. The KMT is now, at best, the party of the status quo, well aware that plumping for closer ties with China is a sure vote loser. "The issue of reunification cannot be answered at this time," Lien Chan told Time in a recent interview. "The interests of Taiwan must be considered first." This means Beijing is in a bind even if Lien is victorious. "The Chinese leadership had expected Chen Shui-bian to try to win the election by opposing reunification," says an adviser to the mainland's Foreign Ministry. "But it's deeply concerned to see the KMT following suit." Says National Taiwan University political scientist Lee: "The only two ideologies in Taiwan now are independence and the status quo—ification is dead."

中國已經完全跟不上這些腳步,他們仍然視陳水扁總統為一個偏離正軌的人,好像把他從總統府趕走就可以讓所有的事情回到原點、回到統一的路上。但是台灣的民主意志正往偏離他的「祖國」路上走。對北京而言,國民黨的轉變令其驚訝的潛在災難。雖然共產黨和國民黨曾經是敵人,但是他們以前至少同樣的分享一個統一的大夢。這個大夢已經不在了。現在的國民黨頂多算是主張維持現狀的政黨,他們很明瞭和中國的關連太近會讓他們失去選票。連戰在最近一次的訪談中,告訴時代的記者「統一這個問題現在無法回答,台灣的利益應該優先被考慮」。這代表即使連戰當選北京仍然是被綁手綁腳。中共外交部的官員說:「中國領導人已經對陳水扁會用反對統一的手段來打選戰有心理準備」。台灣大學的李姓社會科學家說:「但是他們沒想到國民黨會用同樣的招數,台灣現在的意志只有兩種:獨立或維持現狀,統一已經不存在了。」

China has made no secret of its anxiety about the election. When the National People's Congress opened in Beijing last week, Premier Wen Jiabao reiterated his offer to hold talks with Taipei if it accepts the "one China" principle, but he emphasized that "we stand firmly opposed to any form of separatist activities aimed at Taiwan dependence and will never allow anyone to split Taiwan from China by any means." But the Chinese leadership doesn't know how to blunt Taiwan's growing sense of its own identity. In the past, it tried to cow Taipei by hurling invective, or—in 1996—by launching missiles into the Taiwan Strait. But during the last presidential election in 2000, Beijing's bluster backfired, helping Chen win office by making him seem like a plucky hero willing to confront the playground bully. Since then, China has been exerting its economic rather than military muscle. In a bid to win over the island's business community—which prevalently favors the political status quo but closer economic ties with the mainland—Beijing has welcomed investment from Taiwan and pushed for direct transport links. It has also lobbied governments that have influence over Taipei, such as the U.S. and French, to tell Chen to cool it. This approach has yielded some dividends for China. In December, President George W. Bush emerged from a 40-minute White House meeting with Premier Wen and declared that the U.S. opposes any move by Chen that unilaterally changes the status quo—a neat irony, given America's simultaneous enthusiasm for bringing democracy to Iraq. The following month, when Chinese President Hu Jintao was in Paris, his French counterpart Jacques Chirac joined the chorus of China well-wishers, and he called Taiwan's referendum a "grave mistake."

中國從來沒有隱藏過他們對於選戰的焦慮,當中國人民大會上禮拜在北京開會時,總理溫家寶重申,如果台北接受「一個中國」的觀念,他們可以重新展開對話,他也說:「我們堅定的反對任何將台灣分離中國的手段,也絕對不容許任何人將台灣分離中國」但是中國領導者並不知道如何讓台灣意識消失。在過去,他們曾經用謾罵、或用飛彈試射到台灣海峽來讓台灣人膽怯,但是在上次總統大選,北京的恐嚇反而造成反效果,這些恐嚇讓陳水扁贏了選戰,因為它們讓陳水扁看起來像是一個抵禦外侮的英雄。從那時候開始,中國開使用經濟手段來取代軍事手段。為了贏得台灣生意人的支持(這些人大多贊成政治上維持現狀,經濟上拉近和中國的關係),北京歡迎從台灣來的投資、並開始推動直接通航。北京並影響對台灣政府有影響力的外國政府(例如:美國、法國)來警告陳水扁。這些手段似乎達到某些效果,布希政府在和溫總理四十分鐘的會談後,宣告美國反對任何陳水扁單邊改變現狀的舉動(一個諷刺的聲明,尤其當美國同時熱中於將民主帶到伊拉克)。此後一個月,當中國國家主席胡錦濤訪問法國時,法國總統席拉克加入了『中國希望合唱曲』中,發表了「台灣的公投是一個致命的錯誤」

But even international pressure is not as effective as it used to be, not least because as Taiwan becomes a more mature democracy, its leaders—whether from the DPP or the KMT—must increasingly heed the views and needs of the majority of the electorate. With the "one country, two systems" model looking more and more unacceptable, China's best bet of cajoling Taiwan into submission might be the rich promise of economic integration. Yet even as Taiwan investment in China has swelled to a cumulative total of some $100 billion by some estimates, independence sentiment rises. A more flexible Beijing might try to offer additional sweeteners to Taipei. A foreign-policy expert in the Chinese capital suggests, for instance, allowing Taiwan to join some international institutions such as the WHO. This election "should be an overdue chance to adjust Taiwan policy," he says, "but that's not happening."

但是,國際壓力並沒有像以往般的有效,因為當台灣的民主越來越成熟時,他的領導者(不管是民進黨、或是國民黨)就必須要傾聽人民的聲音、需要。當「一國兩制」的架構越來越不能接受,中國最有效的方案只能靠經濟整合。然而,及使台灣在中國的總投資超過千億美元,獨立的傾向卻是越來越明顯。身段要更軟化的北京可能會讓台北試試其他的甜頭。例如:一個在北京的外國關係專家就建議讓台灣加入一些國際組織(如國際衛生組織)。他說:「這個選舉可能是一個改變對台灣策略的契機,但是,這個政策改變卻沒有發生。」

Instead, Beijing can only hope that the KMT wins—and ready its military so that it has an alternative means of ensuring that the independence movement doesn't go too far. Beijing has never ruled out retaking Taiwan by force, and years of double-digit growth in the mainland's defense spending have finally made this a feasible strategy. By settling almost all their border disputes, China's leaders can now target the country's military investment on two goals: attacking Taiwan, and deterring U.S. involvement in the conflict. Over the past 18 months, observers have detected a sharp uptick in China's military shipbuilding, especially of submarines and of amphibious landing craft capable of ferrying 400 soldiers and 30 tanks across the rough Taiwan Strait. Even more important is new technology to target U.S. aircraft carriers based in Japan. Defense experts believe China is still a decade away from being able to land troops on Taiwan's fortified shores. Nonetheless, says a Western diplomat in Beijing, "for the first time China's political leaders are at the point of having a credible military option."

所以,北京只能希望國民黨能贏了這場選舉,並且準備好武力來確保台灣獨立運動不會走得太過火。北京從不曾排除對台灣動武,它們每年的軍事費用是百分之十幾以上的成長,而現在大陸終於有可行攻台策略。在確保鄰國不會侵犯後,中國領者人可以讓這個國家的軍備力量集中在兩件事情上:攻擊台灣,以及拖延美國介入。在過去的十八個月,觀察家發現中國的軍事設備有極大的進展,特別是潛水艇以及可以載運四百名軍人、三十輛坦克跨過台灣海峽的兩棲登陸艦艇。中國更重要的目標,是能夠攻擊美軍日本基地航空母艦的科技。國防專家相信距離中國真正有能力攻台的時間應該還有十年,但是,一個在中國的西方戰略家說:「中國領導者是第一次有足以信賴的軍事手段(來攻台)」。

China is unlikely, of course, to attack Taiwan militarily—Beijing would have too much to lose. But by showing that it has the capability to do so, it hopes to chill Taiwan's independence movement. Such brinkmanship won't work if the southern village of Tungkang is any barometer. TV celebrity Wang Ben-hu is winding down his show, but the audience is still charged. The crowd becomes so emotional that security guards muscle in to try to calm people down. An old man seated in the front row, no longer able to contain his feelings, rises to his feet and shouts, "China is China. Taiwan is Taiwan." For the first time in history, perhaps, that is something that Beijing—and the rest of the world—might have to come to terms with.

當然,中國是不太可能攻台,如果攻台北京的的損失會更大。但是,藉著展現他們攻台的能力,他們希望可以能台灣的獨立運動冷卻。但是,這種危險策略在這個東港的小魚村起不了什麼作用。電視明星汪笨湖正在讓他的節目降溫,但是現場觀眾依然很熱情。觀眾熱情到要讓警衛介入才能讓人民冷靜下來,一個坐在前排座位、再也不能控制他的情感的老人站起來大叫:「中國是中國,台灣是台灣。」也許,這個口號是中國以及世界其他的國家要開始需要深思、體會的。


NOTE:本文原載2004-04-05之PChome新聞台